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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/20 11:43
Cash Cattle Prices Jump $2.00 Higher
Northern dressed cattle are currently being reported at $290 and Southern
live cattle are trading at $183 -- both of which are $2.00 higher than last
week's weighted average.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
With the cash cattle market noting prices $2.00 higher in both the Northern
and Southern plains, both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are
rallying into Friday's noon hour. Later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on
Feed report will be released which could affect trade early next week. December
corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.70.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 31.83 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
With the cash cattle market seeing prices being reported $2.00 higher in
both regions, traders are celebrating the fact that the market's fundamentals
are helping add to their supportive note this week and are once again advancing
the contracts higher. October live cattle are up $1.75 at $181.75, December
live cattle are up $1.70 at $182.85 and February live cattle are up $1.15 at
$183.55. It was just this week that the market conquered its 40-day moving
average in the spot December contract, and now the market is close to nearing
its 100-day moving average which would be one heck of a technical feat. But
this is a great lesson that when the market's fundamentals and technical
components support one another, a change in direction is possible. There have
been a few cash cattle sales in the North at $290 which is $2.00 higher than
last week's weighted average, and some live sales have been noted in the South
at $183 which is also $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some
Northern cattle have been requested for delivery as soon as next 9/30/2024
indicating that packers are shorter bought than they'd ideally like. Please
note that later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be
released.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.11 ($300.67) and select up $1.33
($289.59) with a movement of 82 loads (56.81 loads of choice, 6.17 loads of
select, 5.75 loads of trim and 13.51 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the support of a higher trending live cattle complex and the cash
cattle market easily trading $2.00 higher on fed cattle, the feeder cattle
complex is again rallying into the day's noon hour. Not only is it praiseworthy
that the feeder cattle complex is rallying ahead of a Cattle on Feed report,
but from a technical standpoint, the market is showing confidence as traders
just advanced the spot October contract beyond its 40-day moving average which
the market hasn't traded above since July. It seems as though the market is
taking on a more bullish approach thanks to the Fed's interest rate
announcement earlier this week, and then combined with the support of better
trader interest and higher fed cash cattle prices -- the feeder cattle market
is well supported. October feeders are up $0.55 at $244.22, November feeders
are up $0.57 at $241.92 and January feeders are up $0.87 at $237.00.
LEAN HOGS:
After rallying aggressively earlier this week, the nearby lean hog contracts
are showing some late-week exhaustion but thankfully the deferred contracts are
continuing to press onward. October lean hogs are down $0.05 at $82.20,
December lean hogs are down $0.12 at $74.17 and February lean hogs are up $0.15
at $77.47. Not helping matters is the fact that pork cutout values are slightly
lower, and more than anything traders seem to be hitting the pause button on
the complex until next week as they've already pushed the nearby contracts to
prices not last seen since June.
The projected lean hog index for 9/19/2024 is down $0.02 at $84.36 and the
actual index for 9/18/2024 is up $0.16 at $84.38. Hog prices are higher on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.14 with a weighted average price of
$78.45, ranging from $75.00 to $80.00 on 1,137 head and a five-day rolling
average of $76.82. Pork cutouts total 146.20 loads with 131.73 loads of pork
cuts and 14.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.31, $94.50.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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